20thcenturyfoxscratch| Everbright Futures 0508 Opinion: Crude oil market volatility may widen, pay attention to the implementation of EIA data tonight
Wednesday20thcenturyfoxscratchThe main contract of crude oil, 2406, fell again, a decline of 0%20thcenturyfoxscratch.99%, the price is below the 60-day moving average.
From the perspective of market conditions, the EIA monthly report landed in the early morning, and the monthly report increased the annual production forecast and lowered the annual demand forecast, releasing a negative signal. In addition, API data released later showed that crude oil inventories rose higher than expected, recording 50%.20thcenturyfoxscratchInventories of gasoline, distillates and Cushing also rose by varying degrees. At present, the operating rate of refineries is low, the price spread of gasoline cracking is significantly weaker, diesel cracking is depressed, it is difficult to find strong support on the demand side, and the fundamentals or margins tend to be loose.
Overall, EIA monthly report and API data release bearish, superimposed weak demand, short-term weak operation of crude oil. But it should be noted that according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Nowak, there is no discussion about increasing production within the OPEC+. It is reported that if there is no proof of demand expansion, OPEC+ is likely to continue its production reduction plan in the second half of the year. In addition, Russian petrochemical facilities are frequently attacked by Ukraine, superimposed by the resumption of US sanctions against Venezuela, supply-side reduction is expected to remain, in the context of the repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East, crude oil market volatility may widen, pay attention to the landing of EIA data tonight.
Source: Wind, Everbright Futures Research Institute
Written by Shi Shiming
Qualification: F03097365
Investment consulting qualification: Z0017563
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