mbaccarat99th| The sky is rising! Is the space above steel prices unlimited?
Medium steel net
The stock exchange issued a notice on April 24 that as of April 26, 2024, non-futures company members or clients shall not open more than 500 positions a day on iron ore futures I2405 and I2409 contracts, and no more than 2000 positions a day on other iron ore futures contracts. The daily opening volume refers to the sum of the number of positions bought and sold on a single contract by non-futures company members or clients on the same day. The number of positions opened in a single day in hedging transactions and market-making transactions is not subject to the above-mentioned standards. Accounts with actual control are managed according to one account. The trading limit will be adjusted according to the market situation.
Iron ore is one of the important raw materials in iron and steel industry. The release of the news shows that the financial speculation of iron ore has been overheated, which will affect the normal operation of the iron and steel industry and market rules. This further shows the strength of iron ore, iron ore quickly pull up, and then limit the position itself shows that iron ore will rise again, which seems to have become a rule.
The steel industry chain is greatly affected by the price of raw materials. From a fundamental point of view, the steel plant is still in the stage of resuming production, the superimposed "May Day" short holiday is approaching, the willingness of steel mills to take the initiative to replenish the stock is increasing, the month-on-month demand for iron ore is significantly improved, while the performance of the supply side is relatively stable. Australia and Pakistan weather influence subsided after the shipment returned to the normal level. Taken together, iron ore shows a pattern of double increase in supply and demand, but the rapid rise in prices has improved pricing fundamentals, and short-term capital and sentiment have a greater impact on the market.
In addition to iron ore, the third round of coke rally hit the ground today. The spot operation of coke in the port is temporarily stable, the inventory in the two ports has risen steadily, the mood in the port has dropped slightly, and the actual transaction is still mediocre. Now the mainstream price of quasi-first-class metallurgical coke in the port is now 1970-2020 yuan / ton. On the whole, steel mills are resuming production one after another, coke inventory in the plant continues to decline, coke procurement is more active, coupled with the diversion of supplies by some traders, the pace of coke enterprises going to the warehouse is accelerated, some coke enterprises cherish selling sentiment is strong, superimposed coke cost support is strong, coke enterprises are bullish, and the coke market is expected to continue to operate strongly in the short term.
The recent Central Financial work Conference proposed to enrich the monetary policy toolbox and gradually increase the trading of treasury bonds in the open market operation of the central bank. Used to effectively promote the development of the real economy. At present, many domestic real estate, infrastructure and other projects are facing the problem of shortage of funds. in the later stage, if the funds are in place, it will lead to the increase of project construction progress and operation rate, thus accelerating the release of steel demand.
Since April, steel prices have ushered in a more obvious rebound. Among them, rebar futures prices once hit the 3700-point mark, the highest rebound range of 300 points, rebar spot prices also showed a significant rise. In the short term, the iron ore price is expected to increase production by steel mills and increase procurement, the price has risen, and the third round of coke rally is about to hit the ground.Mbaccarat99thSuperimposed macro expectations increased, the overall market pre-festival speculation atmosphere is relatively strong. Therefore, a pull-up trend is formed from the raw material end, but taking into account the arrival of the rainy season, we still need to pay attention to the follow-up of timber demand.
Li Guangbo, chief analyst of the China Iron and Steel Network Information Research Institute, said that from the data required by the weekly table, thread output increased, hot coil output decreased, and hot metal reflux threads; the inventory of the five major materials continued to decline, and the speed of thread removal was faster, the thread meter needed to continue to increase, the hot coil meter needed to decrease slightly, and the hot coil pressure was slightly greater than the thread. Looking at the data as a whole, there is little risk before the festival.
The threaded table needs to improve this week, slightly better than expected, production picked up moderately, and inventories continued to fall sharply. Hot volume removal is slightly accelerated, social inventory is still on the high side, continue to pay attention to demand quality and destocking sustainability.
At the same time, steel prices showed a volatile upward trend in April under the support of rising raw materials, improved demand and increased willingness to trade in the market. For May, based on the tamping of the bottom price, the price of raw materials and the market expected support of the peak demand season, it is expected that there is still some room and opportunities for the steel market to rise in May. At present, the market should focus on whether the terminal demand is sustainable.